Politics update from John Birchall
A YouGov poll for Channel 4 News found the Tory lead in 60 Labour-held marginal’s had shrunk from seven to just two points over the past year.
The slide in Conservative support is further evidence Britain could be heading for a hung parliament after the election expected on 6 May.
The survey put the Tories on 39 per cent (down four points since last year) and Labour on 37 per cent (up one). YouGov calculated that the results would leave the Tories the largest party after the election, but 11 seats short of an overall Commons majority.
Just a few weeks ago most bookmakers were on the verge of stopping bets on a Tory majority, now they are beginning to wonder what odds to give for a ‘hung’ parliament and maybe even a Labour victory. Harold Wilson governed with a single figure majority in the 1960’s and waited eighteen months before recording a landslide. So, it appears that there is all to play for and Gordon Brown has a Budget with which to hint at future plans that might help those yet to decide who to vote for.
But how have the Tories lost their supremacy? Have they suddenly moved too far to the right, or has the faithful decided that Mr Cameron is too ‘left’ for their liking. Might we be about to hear more on immigration – the second most talked of topic after the economy.
An investigation by The Independent last week found the Tories have spent £6m over two years in the marginal battlegrounds, in most cases far outspending Labour and the Liberal Democrats. It now appears that the money for this has come mainly from Lord Ashcroft.
The party faces the daunting challenge of capturing 117 seats to achieve a majority of just one – a task described by a shadow cabinet member as a "mountain to climb.
Strategists at Central Office are looking ‘confused’ as poll after shows their lead slipping – just how has it happened?
Answers on a post card to The Conservative Party, Milbank, London