Political update from John Birchall
Two major observations can be made about the phoney election campaign that has already started. One is that the economy will be central to the real campaign and two is that how the public view the complexities of economics will also determine how they vote.
With growth for the last quarter of 2009 now moved upwards to 0.3% the chattering classes of ‘Westminster Village’ are saying that either we should stay as we are and NOT cut public sector debt, or that now is the time to cut debt. The Independent reports that Mr Osborne, who may be Chancellor before midsummer’s’ night , is favoured by a majority of business people asked about how best to manage the economy. The Daily Mirror reports that the same Mr Osborne has promised more severe cuts in public spending than Margaret Thatcher (a name not all young students of politics will know!).
The poor electorate are left to decide if after 13 years in power Labour have had their chance or do they think an untried and apparently quite ruthless Mr Osborne will be the better choice.
Opinion Polls show the Tory lead narrowing but as a former Conservative Central Office expert noted in The Times of yesterday ‘the marginal’s don’t always vote the same way as the ‘safe’ seats’. Some pollsters think that the Tories are stacking votes in traditional strongholds, whilst Labour might be keeping their majorities in their normal homelands. If so, then it will be places such as Kettering, North West Leicester and other potential swing seats that will decide the outcome of the election.
It is with this in mind that Mr Cameron’s face adorns many sites in parts of East London, whilst Mr Brown chose to start his election campaign ( unofficial that is) in Coventry ( well Warwick University, which is in Coventry) – each are looking at areas where they know the battle ground seats lie.
It’s going to be an interesting few months, so let’s chat about it via this blog.
John
Extra Teaching Resource: An all too brief introduction to the workings of The European Parliament